No Escape

Tens of millions of people uprooted by conflict and violence are increasingly left with nowhere to escape from the devastating effects of the global climate crisis.

Nov 12, 2024 - Also available in: Español

The 10 countries from which the most refugees have fled are shown here. Taken together, about 35 million have fled these countries to seek asylum elsewhere.

The bubbles represent the number of refugees in each country of asylum.

When we categorize these countries of asylum by climate hazard zones, we can see that many refugees have fled to countries classified as exposed to high or severe climate hazards.

The countries of origin, shown on the left side, are also classified by climate hazard.

The climate crisis is pushing already vulnerable populations from one danger to another. For instance: more than 700,000 refugees have fled Sudan to Chad, a country grappling with high natural hazards, such as heavy rains and flooding.

Hailing from one of the most climate-vulnerable countries, 72 per cent of Myanmar’s internationally displaced people, including registered refugees and asylum-seekers, now find themselves in Bangladesh, where natural hazards are classified as extreme.

Similarly, 86 per cent of internationally displaced Afghans, refugees and asylum-seekers have sought refuge in Iran and Pakistan, countries that are both affected by even higher climate risks than their home country.

The situation will only get worse. We can change the chart to show the forecasted climate hazard class for each country by 2040 when the vast majority of asylum countries will be classified as exposed to either high, severe, or extreme climate hazards.

The climate hazard class for countries of origin is also expected to change for the worse.

Sustainable solutions

Solutions to mitigate the increasingly negative impacts of climate change on forced displacement are within reach, but they demand action on multiple fronts.

Including displaced communities

Displaced people are among those most exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and yet they are rarely consulted or given a seat at the table in the design of strategies and policies. Just 24 of 60 National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), and 25 of 166 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) include concrete provisions on displacement in the context of climate change and disasters. Similarly, only seven out of 31 regional strategies for disaster risk reduction (DRR) reference displacement.

Including the insights and lived experiences of displaced people can improve the policies designed to protect them and help them adapt.

Rohingya youth take action in Bangladesh refugee camps

Before Mohammed Anower and his friends got to work, the stream that ran past his family’s shelter in Kutupalong refugee settlement was a fetid river of waste. In the monsoon rains, it quickly overflowed its banks, contributing to the flooding and landslides that devastate this sprawling camp, which lies in an area of Bangladesh prone to increasingly frequent and intense tropical storms. Anower belongs to one of dozens of youth groups across the camp that design and implement projects to combat pollution and raise awareness about climate change. They dredged the stream of waste and planted native trees and grasses along its banks. The results not only reduced flooding, but also created a cleaner and healthier environment and more public space.

“It’s essential for refugees to come together on climate issues,” said Anower. “We all have to work collectively to mitigate the impact of climate change.”

*Workers pull trash out of a stream in Kutupalong refugee settlement as part of an initiative spearheaded by Mohammed Anower and his youth group. ©UNHCR/Susan Hopper*

Including displaced people in conservation efforts

In the coastal city of Turbo, Colombia, community group “The Mangrove Guardians” (Guardianes del Mangle) is working to restore the gnarled trees that grow along the shoreline, providing a natural barrier between land and sea. Over the years, much of the local mangrove forest has been lost to deforestation, pollution and coastal development.

The Guardians include local fishermen whose livelihoods have been impacted by the loss of the mangroves, as well as people displaced by armed conflict. They are working together to plant trees and clean up the area between low and high tide where mangroves grow. Their work has helped improve water flow, reduce pollution, and create a healthier ecosystem. The project is supported by the UNHCR’s Environment and Climate Action Innovation Fund.

Diana Colón, a community leader and Guardians member, said the idea has caught on: “Today, we can see that awareness has grown. Our streets and neighbourhoods are cleaner and more people are eager to get involved.”

*“The Mangrove Guardians” are working to restore the local mangrove forest in Turbo, Colombia. ©UNHCR/Marina Calderon*

Closing gaps in climate finance

Communities least responsible for carbon emissions are paying the highest price, and the billions of dollars of climate financing available globally are not reaching displaced people and the communities hosting them. Gaps in climate finance are stark, with 90 per cent of climate finance being spent in middle-income, high-emitting countries. Extremely fragile states receive just $2 per person in annual per capita adaptation funding compared to $161 per person in non-fragile states. This leaves displaced people and their host communities less able to adapt to the growing challenges of climate change.

There is an urgent need for more investment in fragile and conflict-affected settings, including through support for projects designed and implemented by refugee-led organizations.

Average overall funding per capita by country fragility classification (2014-2021)

Investments in solar energy bring sustainable power to refugee camps in Jordan

With funding from the Saudi Fund for Development, the IKEA Foundation and the German Development Bank KfW, UNHCR built solar plants in Jordan’s two largest refugee camps - Za’atari and Azraq, which are home to some 120,000 Syrian refugees – in 2017. They reduced the need for electricity from the national grid by 70 per cent and supplied energy to the camps for 12 hours a day. Last year, UNHCR, together with its German partners, brokered a multi-stakeholder agreement to bring additional renewable energy to the camps to cover the remaining 30 per cent of electricity needs. The Green Deal for Jordan uses energy from a solar plant south of the Jordanian capital, Amman, to supply Za’atari and Azraq. The two camps now run almost exclusively on solar power, reducing carbon emissions by some 15,000 tons per year and allowing refugee households to run basic appliances, such as fans and heaters, in an eco-friendly way.

*The solar plant at Jordan’s Azraq camp. ©UNHCR/Osama Sabbah*

Providing protection

Most people forced to flee by extreme weather stay within their own countries, becoming internally displaced people. In such cases, UNHCR and its partners provide protection and humanitarian assistance. In cases where people are forced to flee across international borders, they may be entitled to protection through the application of international refugee and human rights law.

Read the full report

All data and analysis presented was conducted in collaboration with the following expert organizations, research institutions and refugee-led groups: Alp Analytica; Alliance of Biodiversity International and CIAT (Alliance), Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), CGIAR Initiative on Fragility, Conflict and Migration; German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP); Green Climate Fund (GCF); Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC); IMPACT Initiatives; Montana State University; Norwegian Institute of International Affairs (NUPI); Oregon State University; YOUNGO. Special thanks to the Refugee-led Organizations: Community Aid Network and Dadaab Response Association.